Unbundling of central-banking functions: the 5 layers
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[!info] TL;DR The implicit premise built by the Bretton Woods system (1944) was that the central bank simultaneously bears the 5 functions of the monetary system, and that those functions are sold as a bundle. Since 2022 年, 4 of the 5 functions (#2-#5) have been individually privatized, commoditized, chain-nativized, and made multipolar. The central bank has retained the unit of account (#1); the rest of the unbundling process is the largest financial-infrastructure restructuring of the past 80 years.
Definition of the 5 functions
| # | Function | 1944-2022 bearer | 2022-2030 evolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unit of Account | monopolized by the central bank | still sovereign (USD/EUR/JPY, etc.) |
| 2 | Settlement Medium | central-bank reserves + commercial-bank deposits | privatized → the three layers of SC / TD / MMF intersect in a mesh |
| 3 | Payment Rails | SWIFT + central-bank RTGS + commercial-bank clearing | made multipolar → IPS / private DLT / central-bank federations / card networks / the 7-8 segments of new L1 run in parallel |
| 4 | Identity / KYC | bank KYC + sovereign ID | commoditized → OCC charter / FIDO / Anchorage / chain-level KYA |
| 5 | Enforcement | OFAC + SWIFT sanctions + bank reporting | chain-nativized → §501 Denylist / chain-level freeze / Travel Rule |
Triggers of the unbundling
In 2022 年, 3 independent events occurred almost simultaneously and triggered the unbundling:
| Event | What it unbundled |
|---|---|
| Normalization of U.S. Treasury interest rates (4-5%) | Provided the economic model for the privatization of #2 — for the first time, the Treasury interest on stablecoin reserves became viable as a business |
| The freezing of $300B+ of Russian reserves | Broke the neutrality assumption of #1 → the dollar came to be understood as a political tool → gave political legitimacy to the multipolarization of #3 |
| The public release of ChatGPT | Transformed #4 from “human vs. institution” into the trichotomy of “human vs. institution vs. Agent” → a reconstruction of the protocol layer |
Reference: 2022 Three Variable Cascade Thesis
Cross-layer network effects
Customer base (#4)
↑↓
┌───────┴───────┐
↓ ↓
Settlement medium (#2) Payment rails (#3)
↓ ↓
└───────┬───────┘
↓
Enforcement layer (#5)
(provided by the regulator)
Strongest path: a player that first holds #4 (customers) + #5 (affinity with the regulatory side) builds #3 and #2 below. Weakest path: starting from the single point of #2 (product) and going upward to look for customers and regulation.
Coverage of major players by layer
| Player | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase / Base | USDC-dependent + its own token awaiting issuance | Base L2 + cbBTC closed loop | retail KYC + Prime institutional | OFAC cooperation |
| Stripe / Tempo+Bridge+Privy | USDB | Tempo + Connect | Bridge OCC + merchant network | OCC compliance |
| Circle / Arc | USDC | Arc | OCC application pending + USDC brand | §501 day-1 |
| JPMorgan / Kinexys | JPMD + MONY/JLTXX | Kinexys + Canton | bank KYC 100 years | direct central-bank connection + OCC parent bank |
JPMorgan is the hidden giant: it has closed off sovereignty across all of #2-#5 and does not depend on the crypto ecosystem. Its only weakness is that it is not crypto-native, but the TD path requires no §501 SC qualification.
Applications
It can be used for the following analyses:
- Any “financial-infrastructure restructuring” event (a CBDC launch, a SWIFT alternative, a reconstruction of cross-border payments, etc.)
- A “layer map” diagnosis of a single player (identifying strengths and weaknesses)
- The strategic implications of cross-layer M&A (reinforcing a weak layer vs. further strengthening a strong layer)
A recurring structure:
- 1944 The establishment of Bretton Woods = the 5 layers were for the first time borne simultaneously by a central-bank coalition
- 1971 The collapse of Bretton Woods = the de-linking of #1 and #2
- 2008 Central-bank QE = the central bank intervening in #1 via #2
- 2022- ongoing = the privatization of the 4 layer
Related
- Stablecoin Geopolitical Currency-Confrontation Framework
- Federal stablecoin bank arbitrage route using OCC trust bank charter
- U.S. / EU / Japan \"three major circles\" stablecoin global compliance architecture
- 2022 Three Variable Cascade Thesis
Discovery
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