Impact of US approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs on domestic CEXs (2024-01~)

Wiki route

This entry sits under exchanges index. Read it against Japan Institutional Custody Three-Pillar Structure — Komainu / Ginco / Fireblocks Japan Comparison for peer / contrast context and FSA crypto-asset exchange registration system — number system / Local Finance Bureau jurisdiction / registration requirements for the broader system / regulatory boundary.

1. Overview

On 2024-01-10, the US SEC approved exchange rule changes for 11 spot bitcoin ETPs, opening a route to bitcoin exposure through products traded on registered exchanges. The SEC itself stated that this action did not approve or endorse bitcoin or crypto trading platforms. The three proposed paths to Japan’s domestic CEXs—(a) spot prices and trading volume, (b) domestic institutional accounts, and (c) domestic ETF-policy debate—are analytical hypotheses in this entry; the SEC order does not establish causation for the Japanese market. ^[Sources: https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/nysearca/2024/34-99306.pdf; https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023.]

2. Figures (2024-2026)

• IBIT (BlackRock): AUM on the scale of $80-100B · the largest share among spot ETFs · reached $50B AUM at the fastest pace in history
• Total AUM of US spot ETFs: $200B+ (2026 estimate) · absorbing a few percent of the world’s circulating BTC
• Coinbase Custody: holds custody for 9 件 of the 11 件 (oligopoly in institutional custody) — consistent with global-institutional-custody-five-pillars
• Daily net inflow: exceeded $1B/day at peak (during the spring-2024 and late-2024 rallies)

3. 3 -route impact on domestic CEXs

• (a) Price spillover: BTC spot price rises → increased domestic spot trading volume · 1 BTC surpassing 1,500 万円 (first reached 2024-03 ). jvcea-spot-volume-statistics-analysis also confirms a rebound in 2024 monthly spot trading volume
• (b) Institutionalization: acceleration of domestic corporate account openings · JVCEA statistics also show a net increase in corporate accounts in 2024+. bitFlyer / SBI VC Trade / Coincheck strengthened their corporate-oriented services
• (c) Debate over lifting the domestic ETF ban: in 2025-2026 the debate over domestic approval of BTC/ETH spot ETFs progressed at the FSA + industry bodies (JVCEA/JCBA) · not yet approved as of 2026-05 (requires legal amendment) — see jp-vasp-regulatory-timeline

4. Institutional barriers to lifting the ban on a Japan ETF

• Tax inequity: crypto assets are miscellaneous income (progressive, max 55%) · ETFs are subject to separate self-assessment taxation (20.315%) — a 35pp tax-rate gap on the same underlying asset
• Requires amendment of the FIEA + Investment Trust Act: adding crypto assets to the “investment-target assets” of investment trusts. Under the current Investment Trust Act, crypto is not enumerated as a “specified asset” in Article 2 , so it is at the level of a cabinet-order amendment
• Division among regulators: FSA supervisory guidelines + industry compliance cost · custody, valuation, and liquidity rules need to be put in place
• 2026 amendment proposal: under discussion · the staged view of sequentially lifting the ban on ETH/BTC is dominant

5. Investor implications

• Indirect exposure via US ETFs: Japanese investors can buy US spot ETFs (IBIT, etc.) via Nomura Securities / SBI Securities / Rakuten Securities / Monex Securities · without waiting for domestic approval, with tokutei-account support (20% separate self-assessment)
• Competitive pressure on domestic CEXs: when the ETF ban is lifted, there is a risk of declining share in domestic spot trading. In the US too, after spot-ETF approval, a trend of Coinbase retail spot trading volume flowing to ETFs was observed → this also affects the sales-outlet-model revenue of jp-cex-sales-vs-exchange-model-economics
• Inflow of institutional players: increasing strategic significance for major financial conglomerates such as Monex / SBI / Nomura / Sumitomo Mitsui Trust → jp-listed-cex-related-companies-matrix

Related

• global-institutional-custody-five-pillars — global institutional custody, the 5 pillars
• rwa-tokenization-cex-integration — RWA tokenization × CEX integration
• global-cex-prime-brokerage-layer — global CEX prime brokerage layer

---

Source: compiled from public information (SEC press, BlackRock IBIT prospectus, Coinbase Custody IR, FSA disclosures, Nikkei/ITmedia reporting, Bloomberg ETF flow data)